Important dates:
(blue dashed lines) delineating mask mandate / advice changes for “fully-vaccinated individuals”:
(purple lines) denoting July 4 holiday
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 11687 | 53286 | 421 | 110 | 48 | 52 |
| July 18 2021 | 11689 | 53295 | 421 | 110 | 47 | 54 |
| July 19 2021 | 11689 | 53316 | 422 | 110 | 42 | 52 |
| July 20 2021 | 11695 | 53329 | 423 | 110 | 35 | 58 |
| July 21 2021 | 11703 | 53365 | 423 | 110 | 40 | 64 |
| July 22 2021 | 11709 | 53412 | 424 | 110 | 46 | 67 |
| July 23 2021 | 11710 | 53454 | 424 | 110 | 43 | 63 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 7% | 3 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.9 | 20.9% | 9 | 0.07% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 20-29 | -1 | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11 | 0.05% | 15 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.3 | 9.3% | 4 | 0.03% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.4 | 11.6% | 5 | 0.05% | 6 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.3 | 7% | 3 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 0.4 | 11.6% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.06% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 7% | 3 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 1 | 4.0 | 100% | 43 | 0.04% | 63 | 0.06% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 7536 | 31448 | 304 | 95 | 17 | 18 |
| July 18 2021 | 7536 | 31464 | 304 | 95 | 15 | 18 |
| July 19 2021 | 7536 | 31470 | 304 | 95 | 13 | 18 |
| July 20 2021 | 7540 | 31479 | 304 | 95 | 16 | 22 |
| July 21 2021 | 7541 | 31504 | 304 | 95 | 17 | 22 |
| July 22 2021 | 7543 | 31529 | 304 | 95 | 19 | 22 |
| July 23 2021 | 7543 | 31544 | 304 | 95 | 15 | 20 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.1 | 20% | 3 | 0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 20-29 | -1 | 0.1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.3 | 26.7% | 4 | 0.05% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.1 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 13.3% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 6.7% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 0 | 1.1 | 100% | 15 | 0.02% | 20 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 5903 | 21191 | 284 | 85 | 2 | 4 |
| July 18 2021 | 5903 | 21201 | 284 | 85 | 2 | 4 |
| July 19 2021 | 5904 | 21208 | 284 | 85 | 3 | 4 |
| July 20 2021 | 5905 | 21205 | 284 | 85 | 4 | 4 |
| July 21 2021 | 5905 | 21222 | 285 | 85 | 4 | 4 |
| July 22 2021 | 5906 | 21234 | 286 | 85 | 5 | 5 |
| July 23 2021 | 5906 | 21242 | 286 | 85 | 5 | 5 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.1 | 40% | 2 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.1 | 40% | 2 | 0.04% | 2 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | -1 | -0.1 | -20% | -1 | -0.02% | -1 | -0.02% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 0.3 | 40% | 2 | 0.03% | 2 | 0.03% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.0 | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0% |
| All ages | 0 | 0.4 | 100% | 5 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.01% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 12762 | 60389 | 462 | 89 | 19 | 24 |
| July 18 2021 | 12767 | 60408 | 462 | 89 | 22 | 28 |
| July 19 2021 | 12768 | 60429 | 462 | 89 | 20 | 29 |
| July 20 2021 | 12773 | 60470 | 463 | 89 | 24 | 33 |
| July 21 2021 | 12778 | 60498 | 463 | 89 | 27 | 35 |
| July 22 2021 | 12784 | 60552 | 464 | 89 | 33 | 39 |
| July 23 2021 | 12787 | 60601 | 464 | 89 | 34 | 39 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 0.3 | 5.9% | 2 | 0.02% | 2 | 0.02% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 0.6 | 11.8% | 4 | 0.02% | 4 | 0.02% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 0.7 | 14.7% | 5 | 0.02% | 6 | 0.03% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 0.7 | 26.5% | 9 | 0.07% | 9 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.1 | 23.5% | 8 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.01% | 3 | 0.02% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 11.8% | 4 | 0.03% | 5 | 0.04% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 2.9% | 1 | 0.01% | 2 | 0.02% |
| All ages | 3 | 3.7 | 100% | 34 | 0.03% | 39 | 0.03% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 45471 | 364945 | 1610 | 315 | 145 | 165 |
| July 18 2021 | 45487 | 365186 | 1618 | 315 | 139 | 176 |
| July 19 2021 | 45502 | 365391 | 1619 | 315 | 138 | 185 |
| July 20 2021 | 45528 | 365643 | 1619 | 315 | 155 | 210 |
| July 21 2021 | 45550 | 365964 | 1620 | 315 | 167 | 224 |
| July 22 2021 | 45590 | 366353 | 1624 | 315 | 196 | 242 |
| July 23 2021 | 45638 | 366644 | 1626 | 316 | 229 | 274 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.3 | 9.2% | 21 | 0.03% | 27 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 4.6 | 15.7% | 36 | 0.05% | 43 | 0.06% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 5.7 | 20.5% | 47 | 0.05% | 57 | 0.05% |
| 30-39 | 8 | 4.3 | 19.7% | 45 | 0.06% | 54 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 3.1 | 12.7% | 29 | 0.04% | 34 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.9 | 11.4% | 26 | 0.04% | 30 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 1.4 | 5.7% | 13 | 0.02% | 12 | 0.02% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.6 | 5.2% | 12 | 0.02% | 17 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 48 | 25.9 | 100% | 229 | 0.04% | 274 | 0.05% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 17 2021 | 614767 | 3001258 | 32699 | 7373 | 1487 | 1694 |
| July 18 2021 | 614821 | 3002772 | 32723 | 7373 | 1337 | 1730 |
| July 19 2021 | 614991 | 3003944 | 32742 | 7374 | 1392 | 1874 |
| July 20 2021 | 615378 | 3004880 | 32798 | 7383 | 1630 | 2226 |
| July 21 2021 | 615739 | 3006628 | 32838 | 7390 | 1961 | 2459 |
| July 22 2021 | 616098 | 3008910 | 32891 | 7393 | 2203 | 2614 |
| July 23 2021 | 616503 | 3011517 | 32928 | 7398 | 2446 | 2904 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 39 | 22.1 | 8.3% | 204 | 0.03% | 245 | 0.04% |
| 10-19 | 51 | 36.9 | 13.3% | 326 | 0.04% | 394 | 0.05% |
| 20-29 | 83 | 49.7 | 18.5% | 453 | 0.06% | 547 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 71 | 50.3 | 18.9% | 463 | 0.06% | 559 | 0.07% |
| 40-49 | 74 | 41.1 | 14.5% | 355 | 0.05% | 410 | 0.06% |
| 50-59 | 37 | 30.1 | 11.1% | 271 | 0.03% | 318 | 0.04% |
| 60-69 | 29 | 23.6 | 8.5% | 209 | 0.03% | 244 | 0.03% |
| 70+ | 21 | 18.4 | 6.7% | 165 | 0.03% | 187 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 405 | 272.3 | 100% | 2446 | 0.04% | 2904 | 0.05% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4 | 3.7 | 13.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.8% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 9.5% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 25.9 | 11 | 8.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 272.3 | 111.1 | 14.1% |
Important Resources:
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.7 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.69 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-08-13 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6597"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges